Quantum computing for investors

Where is the money going?

Specialist capital arrived early. Quantonation began investing in quantum in 2018, when the sector was still considered niche, and has since closed more than $260M for its second fund, as Olivier Tonneau explains in Inside a $260M quantum fund. He describes a triangle of governments, venture capital and startups, and argues that coordinated ecosystems, not physics alone, decide who wins.

Governments are the other big buyer. In The global quantum race, André König of GQI explains why quantum has become a national security priority, from the US–China race to newer players such as Saudi Arabia, Israel and Singapore. The UK alone has moved from its 2014 national programme to a £1 billion commitment, says Michael Cuthbert of the NQCC in Quantum advantage and real-world use cases.

Which numbers should investors watch?

Not raw qubit counts. Arne Laucht of Diraq calls them one of the most misleading numbers in quantum and points to physical versus logical qubits instead. His single metric for investors is price per computation (Why 99.9% fidelity isn't good enough). ORCA's Thien-An Nguyen goes further: "how many qubits?" is the least relevant question you can ask (Why the 'boring' quantum computer changes everything).

Prefer trend lines to press releases. MITRE's Dr. Yaakov Weinstein builds his forecasts only from companies' own published metrics, and wishes the word "breakthrough" wasn't attached to everything (Someone is stealing your data now to decrypt it later).

Which business models work before fault tolerance?

• Software and tools across all hardware. QC Design sells design automation to hardware teams on every platform, reached product-market fit in six months and is cash-flow positive (Ish Dhand).
• Systems that fit today's infrastructure. ORCA's room-temperature photonic systems slot into existing data centers, priced an order of magnitude below competitors (Thien-An Nguyen).
• Components inside existing equipment. KETS puts quantum key distribution on a chip that fits as a card in telecom gear, and the chip is no longer the most expensive part of the system (Francesco Raffaelli).
• Service first, machines later. TAU Systems sells services before selling its compact accelerators (Jerome Paye).
• Classical first, quantum later. Quantum Signals built a classical trading-signal business before adding quantum (Yianni Gamvros).

What are the risks to price in?

Nobel laureate Alain Aspect puts his own bet on quantum computing working at fifty per cent, and warns that you cannot accelerate basic ideas just by dumping money on them (Einstein was wrong). Ish Dhand names the real risk plainly: no hardware platform may reach fault tolerance. Eleni Diamanti believes Europe has too many quantum startups (Will Europe lose the quantum race?), and Pouya Dianat of QCI discusses what happens if quantum doesn't deliver by 2030 (We're selling quantum computing today).

What timelines do experts give?

Timelines are the guests' own views at the time of recording, not forecasts by Blond & Quantum.